How To Pick Against The Point Spread
What 5 NFL games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 14? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 14 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 14 NFL Predictions, Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
Bettors can then either choose for the favored team to win by more than the number of points set, or bet on the underdogs to lose by less than the number of points they are underdogs by or win the game straight up. For example, the spread could be set on the favored team at 6.5 points. Betting against the spread means you are taking the Underdog and the points in a game. To win you want the “underdog” to either win the game outright OR lose by less then the “ Point Spread ” you are given. A example of this we will use the following. The New England Patriots -7 vs NY Jets +7.
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
- Point Spread Pick Ole Miss can ill-afford to get swept against SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt as the Rebels attempt to build momentum heading into the SEC Tournament. Ole Miss is on the wrong side of the bubble entering their last regular-season game and will need to win the SEC Tournament in order to receive an automatic bid to the big dance.
- In sports betting, oddsmaker's calculate the odds, or probability, of one team or person winning against the other. The odds are presented showing a favorite and an underdog, a point spread or moneyline, and a total, each of which is used to make various types of bets.
- In our picks and predictions against the spread for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season, Tom Brady gets outdueled by Drew Brees, Minnesota exacts revenge on Green Bay and Dallas cancels L.A.'
– CFN Expert Picks: NFL
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. Tennessee at Jacksonville
LINE: Tennessee -7.5
ATS PICK: Tennessee
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Pick against Jacksonville at your own risk.
The Jaguars haven’t been all that bad with Mike Glennon at the helm, the running game has worked, and the defense has been just good enough to hold on. With Glennon in, the Jags lost to Cleveland by two and in overtime to Minnesota by a field goal.
Now they’re at home against a Tennessee team that just got ripped apart by Cleveland.
Call that a foreseeable clunker.
The Titans have been going full bore for weeks with two games against Indianapolis and an overtime battle at Baltimore and Cleveland came out smoking in a 41-35 win.
The Titans only beat Jacksonville by three at home in Week 2, so why like them by 7.5?
The Jaguar run defense has been awful. It was bad then, it’s struggling even more now, and Tennessee is coming off a shockingly bad game on the ground with just 62 yards. The three turnovers had something to do with it.
It’s all a long-winded way of saying that last week won’t happen twice in a row.
NEXT: Green Bay at Detroit
4. Green Bay at Detroit
LINE: Green Bay -7.5
ATS PICK: Green Bay
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Detroit usually needs a collapse to win.
Atlanta gagged away the Week 7 game in the final moments, Chicago totally melted down in last week 34-30 Lion win, and Arizona lost in Week 3 after turning it over three times.
This is a much stronger and it’s going to be a much looser Lion team under Darrell Bevell the rest of the way, but it’s not going to get a clunker out of Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay for one simple reason …
It almost happened last week.
The Packers were never in that much danger against Philadelphia, but things got a little loose late. They got up 23-3 in the fourth and were cruising right along, but a Jalen Reagor punt return made it a seven point game with just under seven minutes to play.
Aaron Jones ended any drama with a long touchdown run, but still, that was one of those win-but-not-happy games. A win all but seals the North for Green Bay, and there won’t be any letting up this time around.
The Lions give up way, way, way too many big plays through the air, and few push it down the field better than Rodgers and a receiving corps that’s fully cranked up with Davante Adams leading the way.
It would be nice to get this at 7, but the hook isn’t going to be a killer.
– Week 14 CFN Expert Picks: NFL
NEXT: New York Jets at Seattle
3. New York Jets at Seattle
LINE: Seattle -14.5
ATS PICK: Seattle
What's The Point Spread
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Nah, don’t be fooled.
The Jets might have given the Raiders all they could handle and invented a fun and exciting way to lose, but that’s not the norm.
The close games against New England and Chargers were a bit of an aberration, too – the Patriots don’t have a passing game and Los Angeles does everything possible to give games away.
It’s really all about the takeaways here. If Seattle is on its game, it doesn’t screw up, and it wins. The Jets can force turnovers, but coming off the weird loss to the Giants with two giveaways, don’t expect the Seahawks to press.
The New York Giant D is playing well. The Jet D isn’t.
Forget the Henry Ruggs play for a moment, New York give up a whole lot of big plays on a regular basis. That might change a wee bit with a change in overall defensive philosophy, but that’s not going to matter.
Seattle is going to come out roaring – it’s not playing that poorly for a second game in a row.
Chalk it up to a short week, or give the Giants credit for a good gameplan. Whatever – the Jets will get some points against this porous Seattle D, but the Seahawks are about to explode with a 300-yard day from Russell Wilson and a massive performance by DK Metcalf.
NEXT: Atlanta at Los Angeles Chargers
2. Atlanta at Los Angeles Chargers
LINE: Los Angeles -1
ATS PICK: Atlanta
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
What have ween been saying over the last few weeks when it comes to the Chargers?
Sometimes, teams just don’t now how to win, and it defies all X and O logic.
It’s why we went with Miami a few weeks ago – and got it – and it’s why we were all in on New England last week before it won 45-0.
The Chargers know how to lose close games in strange and creative ways, and then came last week when it all melted down. Give credit to Bill Belichick for being amazing against rookie quarterbacks, but it was the first time that Justin Herbert looked off.
The Chargers played like a team that’s been through an emotion tussle all season long, because they have been with all the tough defeats.
Atlanta knows just a wee bit about gagging away games – forgetting that Super Bowl, the Dallas and Detroit games this year were brutal.
There’s a lot not to like about this. Atlanta doesn’t have a ground game, the Charger offense has been great through the air, this is a banged up Falcon team, the defense didn’t generate any takeaways against the Patriots that that’s about to change …
Los Angeles will play better. They’re at home for the third time in four games, but the Falcons aren’t playing the Saints – that was the opponent in two of the last three games.
There but for the meltdown against the Lions, Atlanta would be on a nice little non-Saint run. The secondary will get hit hard, but the run D will be strong, and until proven otherwise …
Assume the Chargers will lose another close game.
In the Stick With What Works category …
NEXT: New Orleans at Philadelphia
1. New Orleans at Philadelphia
LINE: New Orleans -7.5
ATS PICK: New Orleans
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s as if the world keeps challenging America to not pick New Orleans.
The emergence of Taysom Hill was supposed to be a problem a few weeks ago against Atlanta. Nope.
The team was going to lock up in other areas as Hill got his feet wet. it did, the D was great, Hill was fine, and it was an easy ATS win.
Denver had to play the nasty Saint defense without a quarterback. That didn’t exactly go well in one of the all-time easiest against the spread calls.
The same thing held true in last week’s win over Atlanta in Round 2 – the defense was outstanding and Hill and the rushing attack got the job done.
And now the NFL’s No. 2 overall defense and No. 1 D at stopping rushing touchdowns – allowing a minuscule five on the year – gets a Philadelphia team starting Jalen Hurts.
Hurts is the ultimate leader and fighter, and he’ll do whatever he must to spark the woeful Eagle offense, but this defense isn’t the one to go against in your starting debut.
Philly has offensive talent and weapons, but this whole thing has been a mess – it wasn’t all Carson Wentz’s fault. This run defense has been awful and there aren’t any big shots connecting down the field. Neither of those two things are going to change this week.
New Orleans might be looking a wee bit ahead to the showdown against Kansas City next week, but for a team that has won four of its last five games by 14 points or more, handing out a Welcome To The NFL, Rookie performance from the D won’t be a problem
MORE:Nfl Point Spread Picks
How to Bet
In sports betting, oddsmaker's calculate the odds, or probability, of one team or person winning against the other. The odds are presented showing a favorite and an underdog, a point spread or moneyline, and a total, each of which is used to make various types of bets.
In football and basketball, a point spread, also called 'the line' or 'the spread,' is used to make the matchup even between two teams for betting purposes. The oddsmaker predicts that the favored team will win by a certain number of points.
The favorite is always indicated by a negative number (e.g. -7.5) and the underdog by a positive number (e.g. 7.5). If you bet on the favorite, you win your bet if the favorite wins AND their margin of victory is greater than the point spread. If you bet on the underdog, you win if the underdog wins, ties, or if the favored team wins but fails to exceed the point spread. If the favorite wins the match by exactly the amount of the spread, the result is declared a tie and points are neither won nor lost (the points assigned to the bet will be returned to your account).
BETTING AGAINST THE SPREAD
In this example, the Dallas Cowboys are favored by 3 points against the NY Giants, Suppose Dallas wins the game 28 - 27. If you bet on Dallas, you lost your wager; if you bet on the NY Giants, you won. It is standard for point spread bets in most sports that you wager 110 points to win 100 points.
MONEYLINE BETS
A moneyline, used in baseball and hockey, takes the place of a point spread. In moneyline betting the team wagered on has to win the game outright, regardless of the score. There is no spread to cover, and the oddsmaker evens out the action by adjusting the price on both the favorite and the underdog.
The minus sign (e.g.-155) always indicates the favorite and the amount you must bet to win 100 points. The positive number (e.g. 125) always indicates the underdog and the amount you win for every 100 points bet. Using these numbers as an example, therefore, you would bet 155 points to win 100 points on the favorite, the Dallas Cowboys, while for the NY Giants, the underdog, you would bet 100 points to win 125.
OVER / UNDER BETS
The total, or over/under (O/U or o/u), is the number of points oddsmakers expect will be the total score for the contest (both teams combined, overtime included). It doesn't matter who wins or loses.
You bet on whether the total points scored will be over or under the predicted number. Using as an example our Cowboys-Giants game, the predicted total for the game is 45.5. The final score of Dallas 28, Atlanta 27 gives a total of 55. If you bet on the over in this game, you are a winner. If the total score is exactly the same as the predicted total, the result is declared a push and points are neither won nor lost (the points will be returned). As with point spread bets, you must generally risk 110 points to win 100 points. Betting on a point spread or money line is sometimes called betting 'sides' - that is, betting that one side or the other will be the winner - while betting the over/under is referred to as betting 'totals'.